By José Tulla & CG
Well, here we go again.
Friday, at my father’s birthday celebration, my longtime friend and family member Pancho told me he enjoyed my recent article about the stock market.
Then he said, “You should write Part Two, especially after the midterm elections.”
Good point, Pancho. Vamos a ver.
Last week, everybody had an opinion about the elections. Political analysts, economists, Wall Street experts. You name it.
And everybody seemed to know what was going to happen.
Wednesday was a great day for me in the stock market. I made some good money. I was happy, feeling pretty smart, and thinking maybe I had figured something out.
¡Todo iba de show!
Then came Thursday.
Se acabó la fiesta.
A good chunk of Wednesday’s gains disappeared.
¿Qué carajo pasó?
Same stocks. Same investor. Same cup of coffee. Completely different outcome.
Here’s what fascinates me about Wall Street.
When the market goes up, everybody knows why. When it goes down, everybody knows why, too.
Of course, they usually explain it afterward.
Así cualquiera es experto.
Elections matter. Interest rates matter. The economy matters. But sometimes good news sends stocks down and bad news sends them up.
Go figure.
And here’s something else I’ve noticed.
When I make money, I tend to think I made some pretty good decisions.
When I lose money, suddenly I’m blaming Washington, the Federal Reserve, or some guy on CNBC.
Convenient, isn’t it?
After more than 25 years in technology, marketing, and business, I’ve learned that having information doesn’t necessarily mean you know what’s going to happen.
You can do your homework, make what seems like a reasonable decision, and still get it wrong.
That’s business. That’s investing. That’s life.
The trick, I think, is not to let one good day convince you you’re a genius, or one bad day convince you you’re an idiot.
And certainly not to make another bad decision just because you’re upset about the first one.
No hay que volverse loco.
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote that the market doesn’t owe us an explanation.
I still believe that.
But after Wednesday and Thursday, I’d like to add something.
The market doesn’t owe us consistency, either.
It doesn’t care about our predictions, political preferences, or how much money we made yesterday.
And Thursday certainly isn’t going to call and apologize.
So I’ll keep following the markets, learning, questioning things, and occasionally getting it wrong.
Because that’s part of the deal.
The market doesn’t owe me an explanation.
And it certainly doesn’t owe me consistency.
Así de sencillo.
José Tulla & CG
An ongoing conversation about business, technology, markets, and the occasional surprise.
Personal reflections, not investment advice.
